Ukraine faces two more waves of migration, as an economist discusses the issues of internally displaced persons, male emigration, and national identity.

Where to live, how to feed a family, and where to find work are questions that millions of Ukrainians displaced by the war grapple with daily.

Some are trying to settle in new cities, others are looking for ways to move further abroad. And some even return to occupied territories because there, at least, they have "a roof over their heads."

Why is it that the state will not be able to provide housing for all IDPs, and what should it offer instead? Is it possible to keep Ukrainians in the country after the war without strict limitations? Will it be possible to bring back the billions in savings that Ukrainians have taken abroad?

This was discussed in the second part of an interview with "Telegraf" with Doctor of Economic Sciences and expert on migration policy and financial programs for migrants and the diaspora, Andrey Haidutskiy.

Read the first part of the interview on the website: "Another Ukrainian economy has emerged abroad": why fewer Ukrainians want to return and what to do about it

"If we only help the displaced, it's an expense. Supporting businesses creates new jobs."

— In addition to the active processes of migration abroad, we also have internal migration. Five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) is almost the population of Norway. Do we have a chance to turn this humanitarian disaster into an opportunity for the country's development? How can we do this?

— Remembering the beginning of our interview — in many countries around the world, particularly in Asia, disasters, whether military or natural-climatic, occur periodically. This leads to the displacement of millions of people and an increase in unemployment.

If people at their new locations cannot find jobs, governments prepare these unemployed individuals for work abroad. This allows the state to tackle two issues. First, the number of unemployed in the country will decrease, as will the state expenses for their maintenance. Second, a person working abroad will start sending part of their income back home. Third, concurrently, authorities need to work on easing the conditions for doing business in the country, which will allow for the creation of new jobs and quicker employment for the displaced.

However, if we only work with IDPs, it merely results in costs for their maintenance, and when and where they will find work remains unknown. We see this in Germany — over a hundred thousand Ukrainians have been visiting job centers for years but are reluctant to accept job offers because they are content with unemployment benefits.

Thus, the first step is to help Ukrainians who cannot find work at home to find it abroad. The second is to collaborate with Ukrainian businesses to create more jobs.

"Why can't IDPs find work? Because we're looking in the wrong places."

— We see that many refuse to leave frontline territories even under life-threatening conditions. What motivational mechanisms — not coercive, but truly motivational — could encourage people to evacuate?

— We need to employ various tools to assist them in finding work. Across the country, there are hundreds of thousands of unfilled vacancies.

While I was on my way to you, I saw an ad from the NOVUS supermarket, which is already providing dormitories because it cannot find workers from Kyiv, so they are ready to offer housing to newcomers from other regions. Are people in frontline territories aware that they can find jobs with dormitory accommodations? Perhaps they don't know, and that needs to be addressed.

Secondly, unfortunately, especially for elderly people who have lived in villages their entire lives and have extensive experience working the land, changing their place of residence and habits is very challenging. This only requires time.

— There’s also another side — Ukrainians returning to occupied territories. This isn't happening on a large scale (though various figures are mentioned), yet such cases do exist. What does this indicate about our state policy regarding IDPs? Where have we made critical mistakes?

— Unfortunately, this speaks not of our policy but of the aggressor's policy. They cloud people's judgment by offering Ukrainians higher wages in occupied territories, supposedly under the pretext of restoring those areas.

This is most evident in Mariupol. But how will it all end? Unfortunately, we see that society in Russia has become aggressive, zombified, and unresponsive to modern global realities. Therefore, I would say that returning to occupied territories is very dangerous. But migration is an economic issue: if the aggressor offers a higher income than a person can earn at home, and they still have their own housing there, they are willing to go.

Here we face the problem of low incomes, limited state or local budgets, and the inability to pay higher salaries, pensions, or social benefits. Thus, the only thing we can do is work with businesses to provide jobs for these individuals.

— What to do with those who simply have nowhere to return? People from Severodonetsk, Bakhmut — how to ensure they have decent conditions and how to prevent emigration?

— There are two paths. The first is for the authorities to work with employers. For an employer to hire someone, they need to pay them a salary, which opens the door to renting housing and living in a new area. The second path is to seek more qualified and higher-paying jobs for Ukrainians abroad if they cannot find work in Ukraine.

All of this is aimed at making people happier and more self-assured. The so-called talks about providing housing for IDPs do not work. You mentioned that there are about 5 million IDPs in Ukraine. Over three years of war, only about 50 thousand individuals have received housing. This means that to provide housing for everyone, it would take 300 years. Does such a conversation make sense? Unfortunately, no. In general, there is a global trend moving from ownership to rental housing, as life becomes very dynamic and the level of population mobility has significantly increased.

I believe that the conversation about IDPs should focus on facilitating their quicker employment, which means engaging with businesses to ease the conditions for their operation, allowing more enterprises to open in Ukraine that will hire these people. That is, not direct contact with IDPs, but through businesses that will pay them, and possibly even provide housing. Of course, state support should remain for socially vulnerable groups, those who cannot sustain themselves due to health issues.

The entire responsibility for the development of individuals should be shifted as much as possible to businesses, as they will handle it better. They have a vested interest in this. After all, businesses, through economic interaction with people, effectively retain them by paying them salaries.

"The war has drained the economy, but some money can be returned."

— President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan stated that in the first year of full-scale war, Ukrainians took $35 billion abroad. This is almost half of the state budget. Can we say that this mass exodus has become one of the main causes of the financial crisis in Ukraine?

— We have removed part of the liquidity from the economy — this is money that used to circulate. If we invite an ordinary donor, they can give up to half a liter of blood. Imagine if we took two liters from them. Of course, that would lead to serious exhaustion of the body. This is roughly what happened to the economy in Ukraine.

— How much of this amount could be returned to the Ukrainian economy and how?

— There are three ways to bring this money back. First, Ukrainians abroad spend money, and these funds reach businesses and potential investors in the Ukrainian economy. We need to facilitate the arrival of foreign businesses, particularly those operating in countries with large Ukrainian populations.

Second — let’s assume that Ukrainians spent this $35 billion. For what purpose? To earn another $35 or even $70 billion. Therefore, we must work to ensure that new money returns to Ukraine. Money moves in a cycle, and the economy is a cycle of money. So, there is nothing critical about this. We need to work to attract this money in the form of remittances.

And the third way is to attract foreign migrants. If some have taken money out, others can bring it back. Attract foreigners, they will also bring their $35 billion.

— Ukrainians abroad send money to their relatives. Can this process be made more beneficial for the state, for example, through special financial programs?

— Yes, the first step is to reduce the cost of remittances. Unfortunately, depending on the country, the cost of sending money can reach 5-10% of the amount, especially for small sums.

Traditionally, cheap rates for remittances have been between Ukraine and the CIS countries, but after the onset of the war