ISW: The capture of Velyka Novosilka may indicate Russia's future intentions.
The capture of Velyka Novosilka may allow the Russian command to decide whether to redeploy the Eastern Military District (EMD) units to other operational areas. In turn, any redeployment in the coming weeks will indicate where the enemy will advance in the spring and summer. This is stated in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as reported by UNN.
Details
ISW analysts noted that Russian forces have made further advances within Velyka Novosilka against the backdrop of official Russian statements claiming that on January 26, the occupiers captured the entire settlement.
It is noted that some Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense, claimed on January 26 that Russian troops had completely captured Velyka Novosilka, while other Russian sources asserted that they had taken most of the settlement.
Some Russian bloggers claimed that Russian forces are still clearing the village of Ukrainian troops, including the northern part, and that Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the area.
According to analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War, the Russian Ministry of Defense is paying unusually much attention to the capture of Velyka Novosilka by Russian troops, which is likely part of an information effort aimed at shaping Western perceptions of the battlefield situation in Ukraine and weakening international support for Ukraine.
Experts note that Russian successes in western Donetsk region continue to be gradual and are significantly below the pace typical of modern mechanized warfare.
Furthermore, the report states that it remains unclear whether Russian forces can quickly advance beyond Velyka Novosilka, as it is uncertain how much combat power elements of the Russian army's Eastern Military District retain after several months of continuous offensive operations.
Experts suggest that the capture and clearing of Velyka Novosilka will likely provide the Russian military command with opportunities and serve as a reference point for deciding on the redeployment of Eastern Military District (EMD) units from the Velyka Novosilka area to other priority operational areas.
The Russian military command may decide to keep some units of the Special Military Operation (SMO) in western Donetsk region and continue advancing towards the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, which runs north and west of Velyka Novosilka.
According to analysts, such a decision might indicate that the Russian military prefers to advance more quickly towards the administrative border rather than in other directions in Donetsk region or in other frontline areas.
The summary adds that it remains unclear how combat-ready the units remain after more than six months of participation in intensive operations.
The Russian military command may also choose to leave some SMO units in the Velyka Novosilka area to continue limited attacks and pressure Ukrainian forces in the area, while redeploying the main part of the military district to another section of the front.
Key findings from ISW as of January 26:
- Russian forces have made further advances within Velyka Novosilka against the backdrop of official Russian statements claiming that on January 26, the occupiers captured the entire settlement.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense is paying unusually much attention to the claims of capturing Velyka Novosilka, which is likely part of an information effort aimed at shaping Western perceptions of the battlefield situation in Ukraine and weakening international support for Ukraine.
- The capture and clearing of Velyka Novosilka will likely provide the Russian military command with the opportunity to decide on the redeployment of EMD units from the Velyka Novosilka area to other priority operational areas. Any redeployment of EMD units from the Velyka Novosilka area in the coming weeks will indicate the priority operational areas for Russian offensive operations in spring and summer 2025.
- Russian troops are poised to capture Toretsk in the coming days, and the redeployment of SMO elements to reinforce the Russian group in the Toretsk direction will signal new priority efforts by Russia to renew attacks towards Konstantynivka.
- On the night of January 25-26, Ukrainian forces struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery again.
- Ukrainian forces advanced in Kursk region and regained positions in Toretsk.
- Russian forces advanced near Borova, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
- Russian bloggers criticized the Russian government on January 25 for not prioritizing the recruitment and training of the next generation of Russian officers.
Reminder
Russian troops have been recorded in Velyka Novosilka, where they established a flag at the boiler house behind the "Kolos" stadium. The enemy has made progress in the eastern outskirts and parts of the central streets of the settlement.
In the Russian city of Ryazan, the oil refinery has been hit01.26.25, 00:55 • 83036 views