Sunday09 March 2025
zss.in.ua

Budanov discussed the state of the world in 2025 and Russia's future plans.

What are the true intentions of the Russian leadership, and will they halt their occupation of Ukraine? This was discussed by the head of GUR, General Kyrylo Budanov, during a special session at the YES conference organized by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation.
Буданов поделился прогнозами о мире в 2025 году и озвучил дальнейшие намерения России.

Has Russia Achieved Its Goals in the War Against Ukraine?

No, it has not. Have their strategic objectives changed? Unfortunately, the answer is also no. In my opinion, this objective will never change. The Russian Federation does not view itself as a federation; it sees itself as an empire. And for an empire to exist, it needs at least three states. In their understanding, these are Russia, Belarus, and they are missing Ukraine. Without this, the existence of the Russian Empire is impossible, and any specialist will confirm this.

Therefore, Russia will not stop and will try to do everything possible—through military and political means, as well as some social and internal social methods—to achieve the absorption of Ukraine. They need this territory and its population. I apologize if this sounds inappropriate, but they want the white population. They need our people. And the factories. Thus, without us, the empire cannot come to fruition, which is why their strategic goal remains unchanged.

What Are Putin's Further Plans?

Russia understands that achieving its strategic goal through military means is absolutely unrealistic. Yet they are moving forward. This movement is not particularly significant. It is insufficient for quickly achieving their strategic objectives.

Therefore, they need a pause. They need to restore their strength, learn from their mistakes, if you will, and attempt to further destabilize the situation internally. Only then will a new window of opportunity arise for them to achieve their strategic goals.

They declare their strategic goal—total occupation of Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Maintaining control over the temporarily occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea. But this is not enough. Much more needs to be achieved. However, this is simply not possible in this war, and that's a fact. Hence, a pause is necessary.

Next After Ukraine—Poland

The empire, as understood by the current leadership of Russia, is a model of the Soviet Union, but with the countries of the Warsaw Pact. And if we imagine the worst-case scenario, the next will indeed be Poland. I am telling you this directly, and there is no need to fear it. It must be recognized. Next will be the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Bulgaria. All will fall back under influence (referring to Russian influence - ed.).

What Will the Future World Look Like?

The world is not changing; it has always been this way. There was just a period of calm for some time. The concept of power and the right of power has always existed. It was simply confined within certain limits for a specific period. That period is now shattered, and that's a fact. We must acknowledge that this has already occurred, and the confirmation of this is all the events occurring in the center of Europe. This is happening on Ukrainian territory.

Terrible things are happening. Hundreds of thousands have suffered, people have been forcibly displaced, millions live under occupation, and hundreds of thousands are suffering from war, wounded, killed, and tortured. Daily missile and drone strikes kill ordinary people. Look at the targets they hit. What military objectives are there? What military goals can there be in a kindergarten or a shopping center?

And all of this has been happening in the heart of Europe for the last three years. Everyone sees this full-scale process for 11 years. Where is international law? Is it asleep? Or perhaps it never existed?

What Is North Korea's Role in the War Against Ukraine?

North Koreans are fighting and killing Europeans on the European continent. Who could have believed in the 1980s, when the USSR still existed, that North Koreans would be fighting in Europe? Yet today, this has become our reality.

Regarding the ammunition supplied. Let's look at the numbers. Russia spends 41% of its main budget on the war, which are alarming figures. And 49% of artillery shells of 122 and 152 mm caliber, along with shells for the 122 mm multiple rocket launcher system, are supplied from North Korea. These are quite significant numbers.

The greatest future threats from North Korea are directed at the Pacific region, which is a region of strategic interest to the United States.

Will There Be a Ceasefire in 2025?

Do I believe that a ceasefire and peace can be achieved in 2025? By the way, a ceasefire and a lasting peace are completely different things. I have my doubts about that, but let that be my personal opinion.

The explanation is very simple—the strategic goal of Russia remains unchanged. Currently, it cannot achieve its goal, so it is evident that it will seek other paths. There will be all forms, methods of operation, hybrid threats that can ultimately, at any moment, escalate into what is happening now. The issue of occupied territories will not go away.

This is a Damocles sword for both them and us. We do not recognize the occupation, and they do not recognize that we do not recognize it. Therefore, this will remain a constant problem. However, in terms of a ceasefire overall—I believe it is absolutely feasible.