China has discovered a way to temper Trump's aggressive rhetoric.

A pass from Comrade Xi to Comrade Donald. China has banned the export to the U.S. of several rare earth elements and related products. This primarily concerns gallium, germanium, and antimony.

The justification is that these are dual-use products. Which, in essence, is true.

Gallium is used in optics, infrared sights, night vision devices, fiber optics (data transmission), and nuclear physics. In short, it is an indispensable commodity for the modern arms industry.

Germanium is used in nuclear weapons and semiconductors.

Antimony is utilized in batteries, weaponry, night vision devices, and optoelectronics (including components for solar panels).

China is one of the largest producers of this triad: 48% of the world's antimony production, 59.2% of germanium, and over 98% (!!!) of refined gallium (but it is an importer when it comes to ores and compounds).

The U.S. is one of the largest importers of this triad.

The ban from China will not instantly crash the American military (and other) industries. However, it is a significant challenge.

It will be interesting to see if similar sanctions are imposed on EU countries. If not, we will witness a "parallel import" regime in American style.

However, such a ban is unlikely to last long. It serves as an invitation from Trump for dialogue, and a method to somewhat cool his bellicose rhetoric.

Dialogue will indeed take place. The topic of dividing spheres of influence will be addressed, which implies a reduction in the number of conflicts that pose risks for the parties involved. This also includes the situation in Ukraine.

Therefore, I will reiterate what I wrote earlier. Initiatives regarding the continuation or freezing of the war in Ukraine will take on a "political" shape only as a result of the meetings between Trump and Xi. The wait won’t be long.